Accuracy and explanation: thoughts on Douven
By M-Phi
Category: Mind & Ideas › Philosophy
Tags: Curiosity · Experiments · Research
Curious how much five heads in ten tells you about a fair coin? I work through Igor's eleven coins toy example, compute the Bayesian posterior for the 50% coin, and unpack Douven's explanationist updating rule that adds an f boost. I show the jump from about 0.27 to 0.97 and weigh van Fraassen style objections to inference to the best explanation and whether explanationists can be captured in prio
Rolly's Take
For the curious mind that delights in the intricacies of reasoning and the dance between evidence and belief. This blog whispers to those who ponder the shadows of understanding, exploring how explanations shape our confidence and navigate the landscape of uncertainty. Here, theories are not just constructs but living dialogues, inviting readers to rethink what it means to know.