Accuracy and explanation: thoughts on Douven
By M-Phi
Category: Mind & Ideas › Philosophy
Tags: Curiosity · Experiments · Research
Curious how much five heads in ten tells you about a fair coin? I work through Igor's eleven coins toy example, compute the Bayesian posterior for the 50% coin, and unpack Douven's explanationist updating rule that adds an f boost. I show the jump from about 0.27 to 0.97 and weigh van Fraassen style objections to inference to the best explanation and whether explanationists can be captured in prio
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